There are agencies that exist to predict what people will want to wear in the future, a practice called trend forecasting. They are one of the primary reasons why the seasonal collections for many chain and department stores tend to look very similar. In some cases, different brands end up selling the same design. The collections are often decided well before the actual season and year they are released. Many trend forecasters release their reports around 18 months before the season they are predicting for, or longer, in most cases [1].
The appeal behind these agencies is the peace of mind they give by making it more likely that people will buy a company’s products when they are released. Retailers don’t want to carry products that won’t move and they definitely don’t want to waste time and money getting them made. It is a very sensible and safe way to approach product planning, but narrows the creativity that is often associated with fashion. It is also very expensive. These agencies charge a premium for their crystal ball predictions and their reports can be overwhelming for those who are unfamiliar.
If you are an entrepreneur looking to get into the fashion business or a small brand looking to improve sales, how much stock should you put in these trend reports? It depends on how much effort you are willing to put into constantly adapting your product offerings to fall in line with the forecast guidelines and whether you think the reports actually reflect the demographic and market that your business operates in. It also matters if you have the money to pay these agencies as well. It’s important to ask yourself, do I want to sell a trendy product that’s white hot for a few moments (fidget spinners) OR do I want to see my stuff on every person I come across at the new free range, artisanal donut shop? These questions target different desires and demographics and require different strategies to accomplish. What is trendy for one group can often be “uncool” in another. Understand your niche first before attempting to incorporate what the agencies are calling trendy.
As Fern Seto, a freelance writer for the HighSnobiety blog puts it, “…the idea of what constitutes a “trend” has shifted. It’s no longer about a singular look, but distilling lifestyles and mindsets into marketable concepts” [2]. Assuming that you’ve done your own research on who your market is, I would hope that you have a much better understanding of the “lifestyles and mindsets” of your target customers than an agency located far away from where your business is primarily located. If you’re strictly an online business, this still holds true. A target market of “everyone” does little to help you plan and focus your marketing and sales efforts.
Thankfully, for smaller brands keen on keeping up with the “trends”, manufacturers and suppliers will often move to the tune set by much larger companies. They will adjust what they produce to fall in line with the trend reports just by the demand pressure from the bigger brands anyway. It’s very common for manufacturers to offer generic versions of the trendier styles seen in chain and department stores.
For entrepreneurs and smaller brands, it makes more sense to put focus on refining what your own brand offers and innovate within your category before attempting to branch out into other areas. Don’t focus so heavily on trend reports and on trying to keep up with the “big” guys. It’s like chasing cats. The business of fashion is volatile since products depend on season and can have short lifetimes [1]. If anything, the tide is turning on the “big” guys and heading to a smaller, more sustainable, community oriented direction. –
Resources & Citations:
The London College of Fashion offers a 6 week, online course for £350 (~$457) on fashion trend forecasting.
Pantone (yes, the paint folks) offer a series of helpful (and expensive) color forecast products for fashion and design.
Adu Makan
Freelance Writer
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